Bubble Play for 45-Player SNGs!
Video Description
I use Sit n Go Power Tools and Poker Stove to analyze important hands at the final table before you make the money. This video can be used by all multi-table sit n go players. When you get to the final table, you want to get paid and this video will help you do that.
Comments
by the way, for the J4o hand :
it is a blunder not to push, whatever the calling range. With a 100% calling range, it costs you 6$ on average not to push. If the BB understands that the SB is going to shove with 100% hands, he needs to call with 60% hands to be profitable. Not pushing with a 60% calling range for the BB is a 12$ blunder ...
for those interested in customizing Power Tools for 45p SnGs and practice after this excellent video, here is how to do :
The process of customizing the blinds / payout structure of a SnG is explained here :
http://www.sitngo-analyzer.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=504&sid=a413f1...
It works only for 9p tournaments; the program crashes if you try to type 45p instead of 9p in the .str file.
However, if you multiply the buy in (and the rake) by 5, as well as the number of starting chips by 5, and you enter the typical 45p pay structure (for Full Tilt), which is 38% for the first, 25% for the second, 16% for the third, 10%, 6% and 5% for the 4th, 5th, 6th, then the program reacts as if you had started with 9 players having paid 5 times more, and having started with 5 times more chips. It works and the calculations seem correct, since there are only EVs and no ROIs.
Here after the .str file I created to simulate a 45p MTT $10 or $24 tournament on FullTilt :
You can copy and paste this in a .str file as explained in the link above to try it.
Name: Full Tilt Final Table 45 players
Players: 9
Buy-In: 50/5 120/10
Chips: 7500
Payouts: 38 25 16 10 6 5
Blinds: 15/30 20/40 25/50 30/60 40/80 50/100 60/120 80/160 100/200 120/240 150/300 200/400 250/500 300/600 400/800 500/1000 600/1200 800/1600 1000/2000 1200/2400 1500/3000 2000/4000 2500/5000 3000/6000 4000/8000 5000/10000 6000/12000 8000/16000 10000/20000 12000/24000 15000/30000 20000/40000
FileSignature: Full Tilt Poker Game
manzlem67, thank you for all of the information you have provided. I am sure many people will benefit from it. In the simulations you have run you mentioned that the results you got were counterintuitive (like folding JJ or AK to a semi loose raise when 7 players are left). Was this because there was a shortstack about to bust? I am curious why you were getting results to fold JJ or AK?
I noticed the minimum edge setting was affecting the results, but I had no idea to that degree. Thanks for clarifying that manzlem67. I've had the program for awhile but have been leery of the results I've been getting, that was very good of you to post that.
Pimpin, I feel like some of your ranges were off by a good margin. For instance shoving 8k on the button against the 5k sb and 6k bb I don't think they are calling all in with any ace and that many kings. That said, if we switch the min edge to .1 we get 3x the shoving range for the button with 33.6% of hands which includes 67s! JTs is a no brainer on this setting!
I also don't feel like people call all in nearly as correctly as the ranges you were giving them.
There was a set up where you put the bb calling all in range at 47%. . .and I don't think hardly anybody calls all in with 67s, T8o, Q3s and so on, in those spots. After all it's the bubble! I think that your typical player who knows to call wide is still only going to be calling about %33 of his hands there.
I found a hand to fold JJ-
500/1000
BB 3643
SB 9643 <- CALL? QQ+ (JJ loses 2$)
BTN 15643 <- ALL IN 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs
CO 2643
CO +1 23643
CO+2 2643
Obviously it requires special circumstances, but this program is all about learning special circumstances so. . . yeah. If we open the BTNs range to 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2s+,Q6o+,J7s+,J9o+,T8s+,98s, then calling with JJ earns us 6 bucks, so it really depends on how wide we think the button is shoving. That's the art of it all.
Thanks again for the video and the comments by manzlem67. This is stuff very few players have analyzed in depth for this format. Absolutely killer!
Btw, I haven't figured out how to paste hands in. Is it possible with 45 mans?
Hi guys,
Sry for not replying before - I was away.
Here is the hand : OXMO54 seems to be a good player (23% on 1000 $11 games), has been playing tight (VPIP 16%, PFR 10%) ; we are 7 left â he has 5 players behind and raises all in. I put him on 99+, AQs+, AK, which I think is reasonable given that he not completely desperate and has been playing very tight. I had JJ and I called without hesitating. After running Power Tools, I found that this call had a -0,1% equity. Calling with AK (which I would also have done without hesitating) is under those circumstances a blunder â minus 0,8% equity. Here, calling with JJ is at best marginal â calling with AK a very bad move. In reality, he had AT, which was outside the assigned range ... and not profitable with a semi loose table.
j4bberw0cky, your example is very interesting and not that uncommon - with 2 very short stacks still in play, and 10BB, one should think twice before calling with AK and JJ.
Full Tilt Poker Game #14710892458: $10 + $1 Sit & Go (108034552), Table 4 - 400/800 - No Limit Hold'em - 8:06:15 ET - 2009/09/15
Seat 1: grindstugaosd (19,835)
Seat 2: Muck_It_Fish001 (12,360)
Seat 3: niggaNeeLdieseL (6,345)
Seat 5: manzlem67 (7,290)
Seat 7: Stupot316 (4,840)
Seat 8: cocowheats (9,275)
Seat 9: OXMO54 (7,555)
manzlem67 posts the small blind of 400
Stupot316 posts the big blind of 800
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to manzlem67 [Jh Js]
cocowheats folds
OXMO54 has 15 seconds left to act
OXMO54 raises to 7,555, and is all in
grindstugaosd folds
Muck_It_Fish001 folds
niggaNeeLdieseL folds
manzlem67 calls 6,890, and is all in
Stupot316 folds
OXMO54 shows [Tc Ah]
manzlem67 shows [Jh Js]
Uncalled bet of 265 returned to OXMO54
*** FLOP *** [Ks Qs Jc]
*** TURN *** [Ks Qs Jc] [3c]
*** RIVER *** [Ks Qs Jc 3c] [5h]
OXMO54 shows a straight, Ace high
manzlem67 shows three of a kind, Jacks
OXMO54 wins the pot (15,380) with a straight, Ace high
manzlem67 stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 15,380 | Rake 0
Board: [Ks Qs Jc 3c 5h]
Seat 1: grindstugaosd didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: Muck_It_Fish001 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: niggaNeeLdieseL (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: manzlem67 (small blind) showed [Jh Js] and lost with three of a kind, Jacks
Seat 7: Stupot316 (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 8: cocowheats didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: OXMO54 showed [Tc Ah] and won (15,380) with a straight, Ace high
Very insightful analysis, thanks guys. I think the greatest art lies in the end game and figuring out proper hand range combination in certain tight spots. The FT being where the bread and butter is.. it's even more important to pay heed to this than in earlier stages of a tourney which I think is pretty much an ABC type of poker especially at the lower buy-in levels.
manzlem67, you mentioned OXMO54 showed very tight stats.. but I'm wondering how close an opponent's play remains to his previously observed/recorded trend in a changed tournament setting such as shorter table, bigger blinds and so forth? Even an otherwise tight opponent may choose to shift gears and suddenly open up on the bubble..
Nice video!
Would be nice if you got in contact with me, either via msn (bodeye@hotmail.com) or skype (bodeye), would love to discuss some things with you!
//Bodeye
I thought this was a good video. A little slow at first, but as the video progressed I liked the situations you put in there. Most of them were close decisions, and I like how you paused and said "what would you do here?" I like how it got me thinking. Just wanted to compliment you on this video. Well done
-Goat
love this video.
I would like to see more more of what to call with rather than what to push with. I found the calling range you assigned to the small stack is the first and second hand a little wider than what i would call with and am wondering if im to tight as a small stack in 45 and 9 player tournies.
EXCELLENT video. You really should contact "Bax" or "Sheets" and consider doing a video/videos for them. (PXF) Pleeeeease? =)
I am sure they would be ecstatic to have you, even as a guest pro. No idea what they pay like. LOLZ You prob already have their contact info, but just in case pm me or reply here if you don't. (even if you're even slightly interested) I'll put you in contact with them if need be.
Mad respect, GL
Donnie
Thanks Donnie, I have not talked with Bax or Sheets. You can contact me at PimpinDonks@gmail.com
Pimpindonks,
Thanks for this great video.
The reason why your pushing ranges are so tight in a number of examples is because your min edge set up is 0.3% in Power Tools. In 9 players SnGs, with 69$ buy-ins, the prize pool is 69x9=621$ ; 0.3% of 621 is 1,86$, which is a small portion of your buy in. In 45p 69$ SnGs, the prize pool is 3105$ ; so a min edge of 0.3% is 9$, which is a very significant portion of your buy-in. So a min edge of 0.1% would be more appropriate for 45 players SnGs (actually, in $ terms, 0.1% edge in 45p tournaments is like 0.5% in 9p tournaments).
If you want the $ numbers to be correct (in your video there are 5 times less than they should be), you have to enter 345 / 30 instead of 69 / 6 in the .str files. The buy-in will appear as 345 / 30 in Power Tools but the $ EVs will be correct.
So you were right to be surprised â rerun the simulation with 0.1% - it will widen pushing / calling ranges quite significantly. Not calling or raising with a 0.2% edge is a 6$ blunder ... If you make 2 such mistakes each time you make a final table (which is about 25-30% time), it cost you on average 6/4=1.5$ per game, which is a 2% ROI difference.
Iâve rerun my last 10 final tables in 45p SnGs to find leakages â the result was very counterintuitive (like folding JJ or AK to a semi looser aise when being 7 players left).