You smug bastard viper. 
Nice...
No other goals Pharreal as I don't get time to play enough. I average less than an hour a day across the year as I don't play at all in the summer and about 1.5 hrs a day in winter.
However...
A very simple goal. Get a Sharkscope Average Profit Star on a second account. Have a gold one on Stars but aim to get at least a silver on FT (just signed up this month) before the end of 2011....
Hi Gius,
OK, I believe the graphs more now. Looks like you did just have a really long period of consistent bad luck.
Lets hope for a similarly long period of good luck!
I...
Couple of questions for you Mark.
1) Do you use Nash when Head's up? If so when? Just as Pusher (which is what I generally do) or do you also use Nash as a caller against certain opponents...
Hi Gius,
Can you show me a graph going back further. I'm still struck by how the two lines just gradually get further apart. This seems to suggest you are consistently unlucky which just...
Apologies Mark I know this thread is meant for people to ask you questions but I wanted to respond to Gius.
I've always been a bit skeptical about outputs like the one you posted. The...
That's a very good point Cyril. I hadn't considered that. Oh well back to the drawing board.
I'm already back on the tables as the gloom has descended
Nice going in the MTTs.
I've just...
Hey gius,
Nice to see things are going well now. It was a bit of a struggle when you first went semi-pro.
Hope things keep going well.
"wouldn't you be able to judge variance by the distance away from that line?"
In the long run yes, as the extent of fluctuations away from the line will be proportional to the square root...
That's a good point franxic and a problem for poker data analysis as analysis of variance requires the data to be normally distributed for accurate significance testing, calculation of exact...
"if you start with $100 and after 20k games you have a profit of 100k you would look at your sharkscope graph and draw and imaginary line from A to B (start to finish)
any results that...
Thanks Mike, that's looks much better!
First I calculated the mean variance of all the possible finishing positions for a tourney
So for a $12 6-seater on Stars there are six...
One out of two ain't bad. 
There isn't a shorter definition of variance but it's not the definition that poker players need to know it's the consequences.
The higher the variance the greater the swings (around your...
Phar, variance is the squared distance of each data point from the mean. You calculate this for each data point then divide by the total number of data points minus one. In poker for cash games...
Absolutely, the problem is that cash games are affecting by hand variance but it's the distribution of finishing positions that matters for SNGs. People think because they are having to make...
"Assuming this is the case then our "average" is lower for turbos, and surely therefore a win will be a higher variance outcome in the turbo than the non turbo as the win differs more greatly from...
I agree phar. I hope you found the calculations I did for you working out the confidence intervals on your true ROI useful. I offered to do this for anyone who posts on my blog and will continue...
"a monkey understands that the distribution of ur finishing position says something about roi but nothing about variance. nothing about swings in any direction. nothing about streaks. u don´t."...
"but u chose one game samples. this shows how "deep" ur insight into "analysing" stats really is.. that´s an A+ for u!"
Where have I taken any one games samples? I've always taken a full...
Nice going Gius. Just don't let the Italian taxman catch you!
"the variance of a random variable or distribution is the expected, or mean, value of the square of the deviation of that variable from its expected value or mean. Thus the variance is a measure...
"any player with any roi in any tourney reduces his variance with a win if the win moves the roi of the actual sample closer to mean roi. this is true for appr. 50% of the wins which do appear....
Something written in book is not evidence. LOL. Is everything ever written in a book true? Of course not. So both Darwin and the Bible are correct by your claim.
Show me some real data from...
"if a player wins every tourney he plays what will his variance be?"
I agree it will be zero but this doesn't happen in the real world does it. In 6-seaters or above wins always increase...
Hey phar, welcome to the rather long running disagreement between me and franxic and indeed me and the poker community in general.
There is a long held and widely cited belief amongst...
Have tried several more times since with no luck. Tournament selector simply doesn't seem to work at all on FT which makes the tournament opener part of the HUD which was one the reasons I was...