Hi all,
My question to you is regarding the frequency of bad beats I see both personally and at my tables. I thought they were happening with greater frequency then one would experience in live games so I decided to start tracking what I saw. I understand that on-line multi-tabling you see many MANY more hands than in live games but I still have some interesting findings.
I have tracked over the last 3 months 5200 SNG tournaments mostly turbo D/N and 180's. Here is what I've found.
AK, AQ, AJ vs. AX (X being smaller, could be AK vs. AQ) - The AK etc. is running at 58.62%
The 1 over vs. pocket pair (like A4 vs. 99) - The pocket pair is running at 54.93%
I specifically have been tracking KK vs. AX - The KK is running at 53.81%
I know this is still a relatively small sample size but each scenario isn't running even close to what the math would dictate in a live game.
In lieu of this, I wanted to know if any of you value hands more or less due to patterns like this on-line. Has anyone reported this sort of thing to PokerStars? What are your thoughts on the numbers I'm finding?
Regards,
Ted
Thanks for your response fergwrx. Unfortunately, most of this data is from the double or nothings which do not send me hand histories. I usually 4-6 table and keep track of these on my notepad then tally them onto a spreadsheet at the end of each session i do.
I'd like to know what your HH tells about these situations over millions of hands. Like I said, it isn't that many hands and tournaments but still not a minuscule amount.
Wow, I knew I was not the only one to notice something was wrong with Stars all-ins. I am glad to see that someone has taken the time to prove their suspicions right. I would use PokerStove all the time when I used to play on Stars whether i was in a hand or not. Everytime the "correct" outcome should have occurred, that did not happen. That is why I have cashed out from there. It is tough to play when the "other guys" have an unrealistic advantage against you. Funny, my wife always tells me to play live and thus get better results. Have you contacted Stars with your findings and they have corrected these flawed results?
First, what is your sample size (number of hands)? More than likely, your sample size is too small to make things statiscally relevant.
I Feel ya...BUT:
I read something about this online a while back....and also with the frequency of more than 1 person at the table being dealt a pocket pair. I started to believe it for a while and started playing HORRIBLY...folding KK because I just KNEW that someone else had AA...or they'd river a set with their 66. I experienced a HUGE, HUGE downswing with this type thinking. ...then I figured out that I just misplayed the hands...and risked too many chips in bad spots. As I started playing more mindfully and paying attention to reads..and stacks..and position...and ICM...and game selection, my downswing was solved.
In my opinion, it IS important to understand that online algorythms simulate randomness..which pretty much makes them not exactly random. If KK is supposed to win XX% of the time over a ZILLION hands, I think the program is written make it happen. Again...just my opinion.
Right now, I'm choosing to believe that, in addition to win % of starting hands, the Algorythm probably also rewards optimal play so correct decisions will be rewarded. Adiitionally, since a player's money is supposed to come from mistakes that others make, game selection is crucial -THANK YOU SHARKSCOPE for making that easier 
....LOL
Also it just hit me that, although algorythms may dictate win % of my starting hands, I think my flushes have always beat others' TPTK or even their trips..I'll have to run some numbers to validate that though ..lol..j/k
run good guys....
I saw a royal flush beat quad aces at my tables in SNG 180 man tubro's on PS twice in one week.
The odds of this occuring are 1 in 2.7 billion.
Do the math yourself.
With millions of people across the world playing poker in the same space of time, there's bound to be one person who sees this. Just like there's one person who wins the lottery.
Your math means nothing.
Bad players will suck out. I've been sucked out a gazillion times this last week on FTP. Rigged or not, Ill still be happy to get my chips in preflop with AA 100% of the time. Poker is a lifetime game. Dont let BS results online ruin your good play.
far to small sample size if i saw a few million then i would be suspicious
I saw quad aces get beat by a royal flush IN A POKER HOME GAME. We took pictures of the hands. If you pick the exact cards (including suits) of any one particular hand, the odds are all the same for that exact hand and every other exact hand. Do the math yourself.
I saw that in my home game too. It was right after a 30 minute beer break and the whole table couln't quit laughing at witnessing such a thing. We were about to take pictures when the host told us not to bother cause he had a pic of the hand on his cell fone BEFORE it happened. And he did! Very weird.
Serously though... didnt we see that in a world series lately where Ray Ramano was at the table and everyone at the table posed with him for a picture with the hand even htough he was also JUST at the table? Was that straight flush over quads? It was BIG whatever it was!
The math online definately seems to defy probability at times. Something about a paper deck seems to feel better than a random card generator.
I disagree. Its called running below expectation. This can go on for long stretches. But everything in this world is trying find a balance, even poker.
everytime I would go on god awful run I would cash out not knowing where my ass was. What I was experiencing was the downside to variance, but I didn't recognize it so I would quit and reevaluate my game and pretty much move backwards.
Drugs opened my eyes peoples. I became aware of what this game really was at the core. I tossed everything I learned in books out the window.
I was down over 5k playing relatively small stakes. Just 5/10 mostly. I knew I had to lose in order to eventually win. I even tried to control this with passive weak sessions. In just a months time, I ground back to even and then added anotrher 2k ontop of that. playing 5/10.
anyway, carry on, chimps.
In my opinion, it IS important to understand that online algorythms simulate randomness..which pretty much makes them not exactly random. If KK is supposed to win XX% of the time over a ZILLION hands, I think the program is written make it happen. Again...just my opinion.
pokerstars uses background-noise (which is random by definition) to generate random numbers. they are certified by serious scientists (i´ve forgotten the university)
i guess this thread is all about sample size and selective perception.
I would love to see screenshots of this I have millions of hands in my database and show much different numbers