SNG Variance
Hi guys,
I have been playing SNG's seriously for the last five months or so now. I started out playing the $3 games and swiftly moved up through the $6.50's, $16's and dabbled in a few $27's, (all of these 9man turbos). However last month I had significant downswing playing $16's. Due to a lack of confidence, I ended up playing the $6.50's again, but with increased volume, playing about 18 at a time. Below is a graph of my results so far this month, its going pretty bad as you can see :/ Basically I just wanted to find out, as I'm fairly new to SNG's, whether these kind of swings are normal as before I moved to $16's I beat the $6.50's with 10% roi for a couple of months.
I'm not sure if I'm making a big deal out of something you guys experience frequently, it's just a 50 buy in difference between my results and expected value seems like a lot to me over 350 games!
Thanks,
SNG-player
Comments
It happens to all of us. Look at any leaderboard on sharkscope for stt's and you will see, at some point, a significant downswing. I had a 100 bi downswing in September...it made me sick. Just keep playing the same game that you have been successful with and you will work your way out of it.
Good luck,
FTHater
hope it turns around for ya.
Is this your volume over a recent period of time, or lifetime? I might suggest sticking to a certain buy-in for at least 500 games before moving up to a higher stakes. Playing games with vastly different coupled with low volume can play tricks on you in terms of your confidence, and doesn't give you enough feedback in terms of expected winrate. Sorry if this doesn't apply to you..
Okay thanks guys, I guess I'll stick at it with the $6.50's and hope it clears up so I can head back to the $16's lol. Rakeback Reviewer, these are only my results for December, I played about 2k $6.50's before playing 2k $16's and that's when I moved back down. Thanks for the advice anyway 
Congrants on supernova btw L_Usher, been reading your blog for a little while, wish I could kill those $16's like you, good job buddy
completely normal...i ran pretty bad in the super turbos for awhile last month