Unreal. $1100 of negative variance this week
Anyone who is familiar with a program called Hold 'em Manager knows that you can look up your stats for any number of games played and also see how much you are winning/losing due to pure luck. Well, according to HEM, I am down $550 for the week, but my luck adjusted stats (based on all-ins only) state that I SHOULD be at +$650. On top of this, I'm getting called really loosely by idiot regs who don't understand anything about equity play on the bubble. I wouldn't be so mad if they weren't winning in these retarded spots.
Comments
Hey! Thanks for the flattering comments! I haven't played in a few days. I needed a break after feeling butt-raped at the tables last week. I appreciate the encouraging words, because after a big swing like the one I going through you start to doubt yourself a little. Good luck at the tables man!
Oh, by the way, I'm currently chat banned until April. So, if you've tried talking to me at all, I'm not ignoring you.
i dont use any sort of hud but that seems like you have been running pretty badly. negative variance is always demoralising and happens to the best of players. sometimes it does seem to defy variance though and you begin to question your ability.
the majority of regs at the 9 mans are shit. i mean you could train a monkey to be +EV in the games and make as much as most of the regs make an hour. they continue to make the same dumb calls and weak reraise bluffs when its down to 4 players. in other SNG mediums people avoid the regs but in the 9 mans i love them because they play so badly and fill the tables so i can get a lot of games in. i could count the amount of regs that are actually good on my hand.
I've been told so many different things, I dunno what's what anymore it seems....I am slowly coming to the conclusion that I don't know shit and that this negative variance is just an illusion for my terrible play sometimes. Grrrrrrrr!! F'n downswings blow!!
Hey Jay! Thanks for your support at the tables last night lol I wish I could chat back.
Honestly, I've seen you at the tables lots but I don't have enough info on you to see where you're losing. I looked at your graph and it seems that while you are a winning player, your graph looks really swingy. Mine was the same as yours until about 4000 games ago when I got some coaching help. Take a look at my graph and you'll see nothing but HUGE up and down swings for the first 6000 games (which, at the time, I just figured was due to bad luck but it turns out I had major leaks).
Anyway, I'm not a coach, but by looking at your graph you seem like the ideal type to benefit from some hand history reviews to help you gain an extra 5 or 6% in your roi. Just a thought.
PS. If you do get coaching, go play on tilt. I don't need another solid reg at the tables, thanks :P
Yeah, I was running horribad last week. Dropped from 3rd to 8th on the leaderboard really fast but I'm moving back up again. I took a couple days off and feel refocused.
I completely agree about the majority of 9 man regs. They are absolutely terrible at understanding optimal push/call and equity strategies at the bubble and they erratic plays seriously drive me nuts when I'm running bad. On the other hand, despite my steaming and raging (like my fuming rant to britcliffe on your blog lol), their stupidity is +EV for us in the long run. So, Brit, if you're reading this, keep calling me for your whole stack with Q-high. I'm fine with it.
In fact, the regs at pokerstars is why the site has such reputation for being harder to play. But, in all honesty, I stay at stars simply because the regs are soooo exploitable.
Speaking of donk regs, Soydelmillo really grated my nerves today. Shoved and called my 3-bets about 5 times today, he was behind EVERY TIME and won all of those spots. I wanted to reach into my computer monitor and choke him. lol Such and idiot.
-- Did you like the K2 call yesterday? Geerrrrrate. BlaaBlaaBlaa CryBaby its just poker. GLOh, and if either of you guys want to talk strategy at any time, add me on hotmail (and leave me a message to tell me who you are because I reject a lot of spam "friends" who try to add me).
Thanks. Yea, I'm currently plugging some leaks on my own. I feel my hand ranges for pushing and calling was a major leak of mine.....(calling off 3bets with 77-99 with 25 BBs....pushing an UTG limper with JJ and 30 BBs....just stupid plays on my part that I KNOW I can plug if I stay disciplined.) switched that all up today and had a +116$ over 2h 50m and 16 games played. AFTER SUCH A TERRIBLE PAST 3 DAYS. I feel my +EV hands holding up and hitting so I sense my downswing turning around, that along with playing solid and feeling good.
I'll definitely add you to MSN. I'm vinnyben. =)
it says i cannot add u twice lawl... just add me. vinnyben@hotmail.com
"Wow", uhm, in a wtf kind of way. I sense an attempt at being passive aggressive, maybe?
No, I don't think you're a donkey. Feeling self-conscious lately? Keep playing your game dude. You're obviously a winner.
For the record, I don't think Britcliffe is a donkey either. She just shoves me light and calls me light in a lot of wierd spots.
Not being passive aggressive or feeling self conscious. I was just fucking with you. I guess a lot is lost in translation/ left to interpretation over the internet. I apologize.
I feel the same way about her too. I too hate how she shoves light against me as much as she does, but It's a tool alot of players don't use as much as they should. I think where she fails is her lack of discretion 'cause she knows I know she's shoving so light so I'll call her light, yet she still continues to shove very light. Plus She should know by now My shove range isn't as wide as hers but she still continues to call light in some pretty bad spots.
I think She calls light so much against regs is to let us know she's willing to gamble with us at any time now and in the future to prevent us from bullying her.
She's a good player but has alot of holes in her game where she could have won a whole lot more money then she has.
Well then, drama averted! :P Yeah, I know I don't hide my political stripes very well, but I also get a little over defensive when people start questioning me lol. Especially at the poker tables. Mostly because when I was just a break-even hobby player, I'd get distracted by people who'd see my name and avatar and try to engage me in some random debate. Needless to say, I wasn't playing good poker during these pointless table debates (not that I was playing well back then anyway).
And if you really want a picture of me with my shirt off, stop 3-betting me so much lol.
Oh, and why the fuck am i running so fucking bad this month?
Everyone here dissing us "regs"? I just dominated Pinko once we got to heads-up play 
. I know i am not as good as him, or many of the people posting/reading this, for he has seen millions of hands. If we played 100 heads-up games he'd win a majority of them.
However, I am (and lots of "regs") know how to win in poker. This last 9-man $20 sng is a perfect example. I know I can make the correct play as often as any of the better players do, I think the main difference is the micromanagement stuff -- chip leaks, maximizing monster hands, minimizing tough beats (not badbeats, just tough ones..you lose trip 9's to trip J's, etc), varying your play to trip up people who pay money to look up your stats etc. And since I do know how to play winning poker, I ended up heads-up against Pinko.
I quickly learned his standard all-in push if I 3 or 4-bet raise (something that I am learning heads-up play is all about, shove it preflop hoping the guy folds) and caught him trailing his QK vs my AJ. My hand held up, and he was crippled and I eventually won.
My question is this: I can only win when I dont get badbeat -- is that the same for most (pro) players? Sounds like a dumb question, but im serious. I probably get bluffed more since i play tight, solid poker, but if I dont get badbeat....I win...99.9% of the time. Just like this past game where I beat Pinko. All too foten my AJ vs QK loses. I know thats only 60:40, but if I win those (along with my 70:30s and 80:20s), I *always* cash. Maybe not first, but I cash. This past game against Pinko all my winning hands held up, so I....won. I *never* found my self in a coin flip, or with my money in bad.
Note: I am a casual player that usually plays 6$ sngs and occasionally risks it like i did today ($20 sng)
Feels good to know that even the best go through slides such as this one. I always feel much more confident in my game when I see top players go through this. =) I know it sounds a little off but LAWL, what can I say! Keep up the solid work, I must just take a few days off and watch you play. Get a better feel that way. Good luck at the tables, I'll see you soon.