I caught a case of the run-bads
For those of you who think I always run great. Here is evidence to the contrary. I have been playing 6 max sngs on stars. I like the format and I know I can make good money at them over the long term but it has been a vicious start.
As you can see my $EV (Red line) is $5010 above my actual amount won (green line).
These stats work well for 6 max and 9 player sngs. The $EV stat doesn't work right for multi-table sngs at this time on Holdem Manager.
Here are the results for my 6 max sngs so far (1519 games):
Comments
But isn't this only a couple week's worth of play for you? Not trying to belittle your bad run, just curious. Also, I would have expected a steeper uptrend in your EV. Is this just because you're new-ish to the 6 max and still improving? Keep posting.
Yeah, it is a short term thing hopefully. Although the spread between my lines has gotten bigger. I just wanted to vent some frustration 
I think $EV is not the only measure of how your running. Getting into shitty spots like KK vs AA or Overpair vs set in 3bet pot etc... will crush your $EV line but are standard coolers that you can't really do much about.
Here is a more current graph.
Hi man
I wanted to ask you sth. Hope you dont mind.
On your first 9k games on Stars you are +33k, then the following 19k games (last 6 months) you are -8k. Bonuses not included obv.
Why is that happening? Have games gotten so tough one can only be a breakeven bonus collector now? I know you can run bad for 19k games, but its like 0.1% or sth :P
Regards
Grasiu
Currently for my 6 max sngs my EV line is $6,600 above my actual amount won over 2441 games.
Most people don't realize how long it takes for the variance to smooth out over the long run. I just read an article in Bluff magazine by Nickolak. He is a cardrunners instructor and has played high stakes cash games online for close to a decade. He said he has had a stretch of breakeven play for 300,000 hands!
The games I'm playing in are beatable (red line is positive). The EV line for sngs though doesn't take into consideration the survival factor. If you are still in the sng after a big coin flip double up you can find more +EV situations or use your chip stack to bully more chips out of your opponents. If you lose that coinflip you are out and it gets recorded on the graph but it doesn't factor in the "survival factor".
In cash games the EV line works perfectly because you don't need to survive like you do in a sng or mtt.
So I think when running really bad your EV line will be much lower because you won't be around to get into more good spots.
Thanks for explaining your comments so thoroughly Mark.
I have a specific question about a situation and I'm not sure if there's a better place to post it so I'll just do it here. $12, 45 person turbo SNG on Pokerstars. 10 people left, blinds 800 and 400 and you're in SB with 6k chips and the BB has 12k and has shown himself to be willing to call with A4o to a medium stack. You hold Jh8h and it folds around to you. Are you pushing here? I'm posing this because of the rule you talk about in your videos of less than 10BB when it folds around to you in SB. Thanks.
BTW, enjoying the guide. Only a couple videos left... then I'll probably re-watch them. Haha.
Yeah, this kind of variance is a terrifying thing for stt grinders (thank goodness for supernova fpps!!). I know a couple players who are going through a similar type of nasty swing.
It should also be mentioned, though, that the opposite is possible too. At some point players will also have long stretches where they are making a ton more than they should be. I've seen some terrible regs at the tables with rois over 12%. These people are on incredible life heaters who never fix their bad habits because their incredible rois have them convinced that they are solid players.
Anyway, thanks for posting this. I think it is good perspective for a lot of people who are playing well and running bad.
Good luck at the tables. Fortunately for me you don't play in my games :P.
heheheHi Donks and all,
Firstly, I've been working through the videos and its helped my game a lot.
I feel the calling ranges for late play are much more wide open in baby stakes and i definately feel like im taking it to the groin right now. My favorites are hands where im "dominating"... that term is really killing me lol
Im wondering if those graphs you are showing are from poker tracker 3, because id like an idea as to whether my decisions have indeed been as solid as i feel.
How does one set that up, or if its other software, where might i look?
Wow! And I thought I was running bad. Now I feel better. Thanks.
Here's my February graph.