What am I doing wrong? I need to be more consistent.....
After running bad for several days due to many bad beats and less than optimal play on my part I had a nice run of 12-1 in high stakes double ups. If I can make a run like this, why can't I just win 60% + of my tourneys each day? I haven't been playing terrible.....but I've noticed that one or two plays you do or don't make in a sng will determine whether you win.....any advice on consistency from my fellow sharkscopers??
Comments
Variance is truly a painful thing, but you have to realize that 175 games is absolutely insignificant. Some of the best players at those stakes could see a 2K breakeven streak and as your ROI gets lower your swings get bigger and longer.
That being said I think there is probably a few leaks in your game, having a 3K downswing tells me you are very close to a break even player (or extremely bad run) or not even quite that. Most players 5% or higher will very rarely see a 100buyin swing at 9 man turbos.
The basic strategy is play tight early on, and extremely aggressive around the bubble. Best thing to do is check out the leaderboard for your stakes and watch some of the top grinders. You should realize fairly quickly how tight these guys play early on.. and crazy late game (when the have large fold equity). I often see people calling these sharks donkeys, because they are often using the bubble to play for 1st not 3rd. This is one of the biggest differences between the 0-3% guys and 4-10%.
Beanmo has some good videos you can buy that will give you a good idea, of basic strategy.. but he does play higher stakes mainly so there are some small differences and at fulltilt.
If you are looking for lower variance, and I easier games to multitable (imo) then DON's are a good choice. Won't see swings much bigger than 25buy-ins for an ROI 3+. Playing tight early in this game is twice as important so if you want to play more poker this isn't the game.
Once again before you jump in I would spend some time watching some of the high roi grinders, these guys have a very consistent way to play and it obviously works.
dude your not going to win 60% of them every day. If you want something with more stability go play gin rummy or backgammon. In poker you go through crazy swings. From what I have heard, and from my own experience 45% ROI is what the best players achieve in STT's. Another thing is that you mentioned "less than optimal play on your part". If you want to have more stability then you must play 100% correctly every time, every game. If you allow yourself to go on tilt then your game will suffer (and so will your bankroll). I find that the best way for me to get off tilt is to go and take my dog for a walk. This gives me fresh air, gives me time to cool off and think, and occasionally i run into a cute girl walking her dog : ) Also, don't forget that if you are making the correct plays in SNG's when the blinds get high and your M gets low (If you don't know what your M is then you need to run out and buy harrington's books) you are going to not make the money more often than not, but when you do make the money you will be more ready to get first place. Because of that you will see crazy variance in your bankroll. Lastly, if you are having trouble closing in tourney's then you should go play some heads up SNG's. They are great experience, and I find that a lot of players do not know how to handle heads up play, this is true for even very profitable tourney players.
Raise by Jews,
Hmmmm.. 45% ROI that would be pretty amazing, but find it highly unlikely if not impossible to maintain for STT (unless you are talking about gin or rummy to which I have no clue). I think the best players would be hard pressed to find maintain 20% if they just played one table at a time.
Now I could be wrong but I really have never seen it, and I do tons of research on Sharkscope not to mention I'm probably approaching the 25K STT mark myself.
A rule I generally go by for reg Sit'NGo is you need to play 5K games just to know if you are a winning or losing player, and 10K to know your ROI +/-1. Now there is no math to justify this, but this going by my own research and experience. DON's would probably half that.
Now MTT are a different story, I haven't done much research on it (hate the variance too much) but suspect it would probably be close to 45% or a bit higher.
I just checked your stats and noticed you are currently only playing DoNs. They will have the lowest variance of all tournament types jointly with HU. So there's no alternative tourney type that will increase your consistency.
Each person's sharkscope plot is determined by two things. Their ability - which will determine the slope of the line (direction and steepness) and the variance in payouts in the tournaments they are playing. The basic rule is the more players the greater the variance. However, the proportion of positions that get paid also is important - this is half in DoNs and HUs thus the variance is a low as it can get whereas MTT it's often 10%. The upside of higher variance tournaments is that higher ROIs are possible, hence if you look at an "any game" leaderboard it's always dominated by MTT grinders.
The better a player the higher the variance tourneys they should probably playing in. I don't follow this rule myself for two reasons. I'm usually short of time so haven't got 4Hrs+ for a large MTT, plus I like to win, or more to the point I don't like to lose. You have to be very philosophical about long losing streaks as an MTT specialist. I tend to get a little bit tilty after a run of Ls. I start making atypical decisions for me which are 99% of the time worse than my normal style of play. I often have to remind myself that tilt can occur across tournies as well within them. i.e. starting a new tourney doesn't mean you're no longer on tilt. I also tend to go take the dog for a walk to clear my head of all the suck outs by donks I've just suffered, then remind myself in the long run you will also get a +ive ROI while the donks, despite sometimes getting lucky, will always have -ive ROI. Without them where would the rest of us be. It's those sickening suck outs you suffer that fool the donks into thinking they can play as they don't understand probability and variance, and it keeps them coming back to donate more dollars to the good players.
PLAY IN LESS HANDS! MOST WONT AGREE> GET TO THE RIVER CHEAPER IN THE BEGINNING UNTIL YOU CATCH THE HAND AND PLAY LESS HANDS TO INDUCE MORE FOLDS WHEN YOU ARE IN! REMEMBER MOST 9 SEATERS ARE AT THE MONEY WHEN THE BLINDS HIT 40 / 80 LATELY!! SO TAKE YOUR TIME AND CHOOSE YOU CARDS WISELY! DONT BE AFRAID TO FOLD A MONSTER IF THE RIVER ISNT THERE AND YOU ARE NOT SURE WHERE YOU STAND!