Difficulty moving up
My stats at lower stakes are very good and several people have told me to move up stakes. I agree with them and made a real effort to try to do this this year. Unfortunately it's been unsuccessful.
Here's my global stats (Stars and AP) at three different buy-in ranges.
<10$
Games Played 1200
Average Profit $1.65
Average Stake $5
ROI 32%
$10-15
Games Played 573
Average Profit $4.02
Average Stake $12
ROI 31%
$20+
Games Played 241
Average Profit $0.15
Average Stake $26
ROI -1%
Including rakeback I make about
$1.85 per 5$ game
$4.40 per 12$ game
$1 per 23$ game
Should I forget moving up and just play $10 and $12 games or give it another go. I do feel I've not had the run of luck at the higher level but luck should start to even out over 200+ games and yet still there's no sign of any profit.
The players are clearly better at the higher levels and you do meet decent regulars and pros. So I'm beginning to think my high ROI at the lower levels are simply because of the higher number of utterdonks playing those tables. I hardly ever go out 5th or 6th as there's usually a couple of idiots who knock themselves out in the first couple of levels. That doesn't happen any near as much on the $23 tables.
Comments
I had a different story, instead. As soon as I moved up, I started crushing those tables (50€ =~ 70$) for about 2000 sngs. After that, I suffered many bad beats in a row and wasn't able to play my A-game anymore. Now, I think I am playing well again (last stats on Full Tilt Poker: buyin 22$+2$/33$+3$ - played 124 - income $628,20 - roi 18,97%).
Lands, imo you should change something in your game... do you remember our divergence about some moves? Well, this is the case. For example, when you play against pros, if you shove with 8/9 BB you will be called very easily by someone holding QJ or A7. They know that if you are short you will push with a wide range and so they call you much more easily than at lower stakes. Another strategic difference is that, imo, you can steal much more at higher stakes. You can minraise much more (and fold if reraised). In some cases should even tighten on the bubble!!!
You see, my higher stakes tips are exactly opposite from lower stakes tips and derive from the fact that at higher stakes players play mostly the same way, so we have to react and adapt, choosing a different strategy. Anyway, this is just my opinion, but with these tips I crushed those tables and I think that, as soon as I had a downswing and started to discredit this strategy, I began to lose and/or break-even.
Now let's do this: you step back to 10$-15$, so you will continue to win without having to change your strategy. In the meantime I'll test my strategy again for at least 1000 sngs (both on Full Tilt and on Pokerstars.it) and we'll see if I am right... ok?
oh ive heard that over the long run you should expect an ROI of about 5-8% possible even lower once you move up stakes... thats what ive being told... so yeah im super happy about my results..!
but then again its is only over 2k games.. so i cant exactly expect themm to be my long term ROI.... anyway.. yes ive being testing out the waters in the $20's for some time now... now played just over 500 games in that stake... doing alright recently but i think at the beginning i Ran really badly plus had a few leaks that needed plugging hence losing money in my first 300 games.. .. but now the worst is behind me, i hope:P and now hopefully i can maintain being a Reg at the 20's... now i have to fight it out with the countless regs on Stars...
so giusnun what stakes are you playing
You won't find me on PokerStars.com because we Italians are bound to play on PokerStars.it (a subset of the former). I use to play at 50€ (=~70$) level on there. These days you can find me on Full Tilt Poker too, at 22$+2$ and 33$+3$.
I just wrote another post... if you are interested, it's here.
Thanks for the comments guys.
I completely agree about people calling short-stacked all ins with less when the blinds are big - this is one of the biggest differences at the higher levels.
On 5$ games people often will call you a donk for calling a 600 chip all in with K7 and 150 already in the BB. Yet this is the correct.
So largely I think it's easier to steal at the lower stakes games.
On higher stakes I think it's best to try to steal from multitablers. They will usually fold or reraise so you know where you stand and are also less likely to spot a repeated pattern of stealing.
I'm gonna mainly stick toy the lower stakes for a while and play the occasional higher stakes game.
hey there
after reading your blog, i see history repeating itself.. i went the the exact same thing.. and only after 300ish games it started to even out .. ubt i feel thaat part of the reason is my play in these games since upstaking to $20 ive taken more attention to my game... using sng wizard... and so far its being going well... like after adjusting to these games.... My ALL inEV line on HEM is on the steady increase.
so anyway all i could say is keep up the grind man and you may have to make some adjustments in ur game and also just sit tight for things to balance out
Good luck