How many sngs you can be running bad?
I am running bad 1200 sngs... and you?
Comments
I always think that I could be making mistakes... but when you lose your preflop all-ins with AA vs K9, AQ vs A3, KK vs 44... and when you lose your sets vs straight or flush runner runner... well, I can assure you are playing well and just running bad. Moreover, I was a winning (profitable) player on the 5000 sngs before.
Anyway... I'll continue to play and, if I am right, this bad run will end and I will start earning again... if this doesn't happen, it'll mean you are right and I have to make a definite level down.
Hey Gius,
Sorry to see things aren't going great so far.
The +- on an ROI over 1200 9-seaters is about 4%. So if you're running at -3% I don't think this can be put down to a bad run of luck. You really aren't playing that great.
As coinflip says you could be playing too many tables. Also you're playing longer than ever before and concentration can be affected.
I thought there were some minor weaknesses in your game from the HHs I looked at. I know you said that you need a different style for Italian sites but it might be worth trying a more conventional game for a while. Also as you say yourself drop down a level to get some confidence back.
Thanks for your advices, friends... I take them in a strong consideration. I am sure I make errors while I play, but I'm also sure I have suffered too many bad beats (really really really too many AA cracked, coinflips lost and so on).
Anyway, Italian players are very strange... for example, look at these graphs of 3 professional players:
They also seem to run bad for thousands of sngs. They don't play bad. One of them said to me that the cause of those "roller coaster" swings is that there are too many regulars, so they all play well and the overall roi tends to zero and the variance shows very strongly on their graphs.
What do you think about?
One thing is for sure: I want to have a smoother graph, so I have to change something.
If I don't manage to solve the problem, I have to do 2 things:
- make a level down
- make a new poker plan
They are crazy graphs! They can only happen if there is something inconsistent about the tables i.e. the numbers of regulars changes through different phases.
I think it is important to avoid tables with too many regulars unless you want to break even and just make money from rakeback. I think it's always worth table selecting and avoiding playing times when too many regulars are around or switching to different tables during those periods.
The problem is that, in Italy, there is a 100€ cap. So, the tables at 100€ (and at 50€) are all full of regulars. No way to avoid them. I am multitabling, as you suspected, just for FPPs (the points for rakeback/vip program of Pokerstars). I collected more than 200K fpps (270K fpp = 3000€) and I am 2 weeks away to get the Supernova status ( => more fpps per sng). Anyway, what is strange is that I am losing too much money. Maybe you two are right, maybe I am just playing too much... too many tables at once, too many hours, too poor concentration, too much depression after bad beats.
Next 2 or 3 sessions I'll try to play at my best and, if I continue to lose, I'll give up and step back to play at 20€.
Thankyou for all your advices... I'll let you know.
Great way to use mobile analytics in a real, interesting context! I'm not very good with graphics but it seems to me you are doing pretty well! Part of the wobble may have to do with inconsistencies with the tables you sit at -- so many factors out of your control can affect your winnings.
Thanks for the explanation. I also understood a lot. Do you believe that it is true: http://www.tubesfan.com/watch/matt-mjw006-wakeman-5-hu-sngs-bankroll-builder-part-1 . Maybe they are worth trying.
I think Landsbanki is right on. When I had my big downswing I was playing too many tables for too long. It is probably something most hardcore grinders experience going for vpps.
There is a point of diminishing returns with the number of tables you play. At some point by adding 1 more table you will begin making less money. It would be very difficult to find that point and it would be different for everyone.
For me I was playing upto 36 tables and now I feel really comfortable playing 24-28 tables. So maybe try subtracting about 20% of your tables and see if you have more time to think and make solid plays.
I think you have to improve your game to run better.
There's some mistakes in your game, maybe if you play your A-game you're playing quite good and profitable but maybe as soon as you start losing you begin to make mistakes which is reflected on your graph. It could be you play too many tables at once or you tilt too much. I think you're more break even player than winning player.. if not I'm tending to say you're even losing player. I would try to improve my game, have a small break and try again with a new setup, a free mind and a new strategy.
Maybe I'm just wrong and it's a real bad run you're having.
Good luck to you at the tables