Shove or Fold
hey everyone just hopeing to get some discussions going on this topic....
basically i find myself in this spot now and then and im not quite sure the right answer !!??
you have a PP under 88 and ur UTG with around 7-9 BB, its being a tight game and not many big pots, there are 5-6 ppl still in the game and no one has a massice stack.. blinds at 75 150, and you sitting at around 1350. do you shove there or fold ?
Sng Wizard tells me i should most just about everything there and should only be shoving 7% of my hands.. but i question the stregy aspect of this shove, i mean on the one hand i shouldnt give up on race situations/gamble with people in this part of the game but on the other hand a hand like mine really doesnt favour well against the 4-5 other players to act behind me!!
so the question is should i be giving up on this spot with my chip stack ?
any feed back would be really helpful !! thanks guys
Comments
yeha i know ill ended up losing to the maths of the game... but yeah i know its a big shove but some hoe the other side of me says you have to take that risk in order to wina tourneyments? so thats my predicment should i play this had strategically or Gamble it up!!
You must recognize what the other players think of your shove. They might think you´re next to be BB and shove a wide range in panic. So they will call you far too often with a wide range.
You still got enough time to wait for much better hands and gamble then. The pressure would start on your next BB.
No gambling there...stragtegy is more efficient.
But hey, as I see your graph i recognize you already know the answer...
yeah im just trying to find an excuse good enough for me to shove, i tihnk sometimes i just get into the mood, where if i dont have 15BB+ by 75 150 blinds... i just start to want to gamble with people, this is where dicipline comes into play....
you know its strange though .... if i had one more blind meaning i have like 1525 in chips i wont even consider shovin i think its some mental thing for me... and as soon as i hit 9 BB i wanna gamble... but if have 10 BB i have all the patience in the world...
thanks for your input though
i would follow the SNG wizard but would include KQ into the suggested range. 5 handed i would shove any pp. also i would post in forums rather than a blog page. im not sure how many baller players would be looking at your blog to give good advice on this hand whereas if you post in the strat section of a forum you will get invaluable free advice from some of the top online players
thanks guys, and i shall post in the forums in the future! and pink 100% agree for shoving in the sb with 72, you know sometimes im crushing the table by moving in so much, and i get shat on by players on the table... i mean shat on by players saying i dont know how to play etc... good to hear that some one is tihnking along the same lines
Oh and i reread this even though that format tilted me. I couldn't disagree more with Pinko's comment that I'd rather jam 27 bvb then 44 here, for starters when we're jamming 27 later we're doing it with 8 bbs rather then 9 in a spot where our opponent can range us a lot looser then UTG. Not to mention what is said about being able to push blind vs blind is all well and good but 75% of the time it isn't going to get folded to you so now when you're shoving out of the blinds you're shoving with 7.5 bbs and even more limited to fold equity, not to mention eventually the blinds are going to be moving up on you leaving you even shorter. Even if you do double with 7.5 bbs it's different then doubling with 9 bbs.
Anywayyysss if it JUST hit 75/150 I might fold but if there is 5 mins left or less I'm definitely shoving (probably shoving regardless anyways) not because it's so much +cEV or +$EV but because your future expectations of being able to steal the blinds easier when you go through the blinds next/having a bigger stack so if you do double up it is worth more is worth a lot. While the future expectations of having limited fold equity/not having a stack that doubles to a lot is very -EV, it's more of a MTT concept but I'd apply it here.
In my defense sir, I couldn't read the wierd format either and I thought we were talking 7 or 8 handed here. Its confusing because his written text says "5 or 6 handed" but his strange picture shows 7 players. So yeah, 5 handed is 100% shove.
I do like your comment about paying attention to how much time is left in the blind stage because if there is a lot time left at 75/150 then you're better off saving your 9 bbs and looking for a better spot. If the blinds are going up to 100/200 in short time then you suddenly only have 6.5 bbs and might just want to take your chances here. Ok, you've convinced me on this one. lol
nice to know what ur always shoving on me with from sb panther 
lol. On the topic i completely agree with thrash, probably a good thing lol, probably shipping any pair here.
You shouldn't even need to ask the question with 88 or 99 and probably indicates u need to loosen up a bit
Hey there coach. lol
Anybody looking to take their game to the next level should really talk to Thrash370. Great coach! Can be a severe dickhead though (lol). Just kidding, he's a nice dude. I like his direct, no nonesense approach to pointing out leaks. I don't want to say he teaches how to think "outside the box" because it is a lame expression, but he does force you to think about why are doing something. A lot of coaches and so-called "sng experts" rely on a very formulaic way of playing the game that may guarantee some profit but really don't teach you to maximize your winning potential.
Thrash, excuse my grouchy demeanor earlier. I was running super horribad (which I should be used to by now, but I'm obviously not) and losing huge pots despite building big stacks. I think I lost 4000 chip leads at about four or five tables today. I felt pretty ill about it.
so pinko you had coaching from thrash? ive seen both you guys in action too, truth be told i rather play against unknowns than sng regs.. sometimes i wish there was some kind of code... between Stars grinders... like if u see one just wait till he/she finishes his games.. this way its softer games with the same payouts 
... anyway thats just a dream of mine...
i see pinko all the time though ... im not scared or anything.. just like.. a faint sigh comes out of my mouth ...
Thrash: i am actually thinking about getting a coach, i mean i aint a bad player, being doing better and better but i feel i can always do better... and ofcourse the ultimate goal being grinding $50+ sngs...
anyway, any chance you are into a coaching + staking deal ? cause thats what i would be interested in ....
I did wonder when i saw ur graph what happened just before game 10,000 panther lol. That coaching must have really helped cos i remember i used to have a note on you saying aggro break even donk lol. I wanna get into coaching, do you coach independently or as part of a website thrash?
Actually, it was more around game 6000. There's a patch there where I'm winning at the 22/33 dollar tables but running terribly awful at the 55 dollar tables (not just losing but running insanely awful lol). In fact, if you filter out the 55s, you'll see exactly where i started working on getting better.
lol.. your note is funny because one of my leaks that were pointed out was being too "nitty". I'm definitely more aggro now which, I guess, makes me an aggro, profitable donk lol.
To get back to Bozlad I work for pokerpwnage http://www.pokerpwnage.com/aff/idevaffiliate.php?id=137
Elwayneo I'll get back to your question in a bit but i'm in a rush got a flight to catch =/, i'd suggest checking the site out as the recent $55 video i released is money although only 2 vids up, hopefully i don't get crucified for advertising on a sharkscope blog
thrash : i took a look at the part 1 of the $55 series.... and i felt like watching myself play, !!! i think part 2 would be more interesting than 1 but the link doesnt work.. its seems as if .. it keep linking me back to part 1 !!
and secondly i cant believe almost every leaderboard player on stars is putting in their 2 cents worth on this blog... hahah..
just out of curiousity how many hours do u guys put in a week ?> how many sets and how many tables at a time ?
I put in about 15-20 hours a week when I should be putting in 30+. I'm lazy and I have a girlfriend who takes up most my time. plus I can't wake up before noon then I get depressed. I play 9 tables and tile but I always hear how cascadeing is better. can't do it.
I want tharsh to plug my leaks!
sigh.... i wish i runn like god!! i havent had a good BOP run in ages.. i always seems to start the first block very strong... and then some where in the middle i get donked and finally end up with a 1200-1300 score.. i something think its a conspiracy that stars makes u run good in the first block.. in order you u to grind more!!
I haven't played in like 10 days myself, I go through spurts of times where I hardly play and even when I do play I don't work more then 4 days a week MAX. Anyways the part 2 isn't broken they just accidentally put the entire video there so if you fast forward through part 1 you'll get to part 2.
im watched the whole thing actually.. i just thought there was even more video footage ... i guess.. my bad.. personally i feel there isnt any difference in the way i play the early stages, but i neeed work on my end game.... especially 3 handed!! but then again i dont know how my bubble play fairs with ur game! all i can say is .. ive being crushing the bubbles when i have a big stack... but when i have a 3-4k stack i feel abit clueless on what i should be doing....
my bad.... but hey thrash im just wondering do u offer any staking or coachin + staking deals ? 
Need way more info than this <_<
What sort of tournament is this? What stage are we at? Is this just a single table 9man?
Intuitively this seems like a fold to me. You're short, yeah, but your position is reaally bad and its doubtful you have enough FE to sweep often. I doubt you fold out many overpairs save for 55/66 so I think you're getting it in bad a lot. If you really wanted you could work out calling ranges for all the players and calculate an "exact" answer (though the calling/reshoving ranges would be subjective), but this is incredibly long-winded with 6 still to act.