Daniel Negreanu Big Call or Big donk ?
i dont know if any one has seen the recent episode of the Big game on PS, but i must question the "correctness" of one of his calls.... for those who havent seen it, i suggest anyone who hasnt seen it to watch it... cause i have totally lost all respect for daniel after this hand...
http://thebiggame.pokerstars.net/episodes/
(episode 5 week 2 )
Comments
Yeah ok so just watched it and i assume you meant the QQ hand.
Firstly it's a table with a strange dynamic - the cannon's range can be a whole bunch of hands like AsXx which negreanu can be ahead of. It's going to be impossible to stove a range because the cannon's range is super wide - he can obviously have just about every combination of flopped flush as well as a bunch of kings and a load of nut spade draws. Idk really what kind of shape this puts daniel in. He obviously profits if he wins just the side pot so he's only really considering that and barely cares what williams is holding.
But mainly I think you just have to bare in mind that its televised poker and calling is the more interesting and entertaining option. Daniel Negreanu and the others are obviously playing pretty casually, and it's hardly fair to "lose respect" for daniel's serious poker game because of a loose call he made in a televised entertainment show. Were the hand in any other context i'm fairly certain dan would be folding.
i think ive being losing alot of respect for daniel for some time now... for many reasons.. i guess this hand was just the icing on the cake... i just think daniel just hasnt adjusted very welll to the new online players like durr... anyway what do i know i guess i am puzzled at his call... cause he is ultimately callling an all in on a flush draw.... if you add the possible ranges that both players combined could have.. daniel is just not in a great spot cause one of them will have a big spade to draw too, with means his spade isnt good... so lets just say they both dont have a straight.... there is a good chance they have a K or better... which then put him in the position of calling with a Qhigh flush draw + 2rnd pair.. and against there 2 people in the hand ... how can this be a good call ?
First of all your comment about "not adjusting to new players like durr" is largely moot because tom dwan plays on full tilt, and daniel negreanu plays on pokerstars. Daniel has always been more known for his tournament poker anyway, and as far as i know plays far lower stake cash games online than the likes of tom dwan/patrik antonius (he certainly isnt found playing the nosebleed stakes for millions of dollars).
I'm not trying to justify the call because in bare-bones EV terms it is probably not profitable. You're right that it is not a good call. However, you are not correct to extrapolate this onto Daniel's game in general, because you're forgetting the circumstances under which it was made. Like I said, this is televised entertainment - the viewers like action and they like controversy. It makes the show a lot more interesting if dan calls here than if he folds, and if he feels there's a chance of winning the hand then he may make -EV decisions for that purpose. The circumstances are different from a normal cash game, and the criteria for a call being "good" no longer come down to pure EV because of other factors in play.
Just for fun as well, some of your logic on this hand is flawed. Whilst you're right its a bad call, your talk of "against 2 people in the hand" is completely ROT. Its easy to see whilst viewing that williams has pocket kings and will get involved in the hand. But daniel can't know this. The action went bet/call, and williams chose to call behind. This represents a huge range of hands, the vast majority of which are folding. He could be holding hands like KQ, KJ, KT, weak spade draws or even straight draws to be overcalling in this spot. The shove from the loose cannon is a massive overbet, and if daniel gets involved and calls it too then williams would need a VERY strong hand to call. In this case he has KK and snaps it off; but that's just ROT - he was at the top of his range in this particular instance. THe vast majority of the time the pot will be heads up with the loose cannon, and vs his range im not sure dan is in as awful shape as you seem to think. He's about 32% vs any made flush (except, of course, the nut flush) and made flushes are the top of this guy's range. Against a set like pocket 3's dan's chances improve to 36%. Against KJ its 41%, and its a little higher vs other blank Kx hands. And then are are all the nut flush draws which Daniel is ahead of. Like i said, the sheer quantity of hands make it impossible to put a proper range together, but I think the call is far less -EV than you think. For sure, it's a bad call, but only marginally bad IMO.
Well if you really think you have lost respect for Daniel because of his read and call here then I think it is a bit silly. His read on the loose cannon has got to be a weak hand or a drawing hand because the cannon did not re-raise the pot with strength. Plus w/e the other guy had did not matter because he was short stacked and if he lost to him he would of still made a great profit on the hand. It was simply a read call on one guy the loose cannon who is desperate for anything due to the fact he loses his money anyways on the 150th hand.
Now, if you want to see bad play then it was simply by the guy who had the kings. He sees two guys in the pot and simply flat calls with the loose cannon to still act. He basically gave the cannon and Daniel a chance to outdraw him cheap. Hence he gets knocked out as well but the whole hand was really between Daniel and the other guy for 82k a piece. If the guy with kings had a huge stack he would be folding.
ok the reason why i think this whole hand is questionable is because... first off.. you get Calacanis betting into 3 players OOP, at this point, betting on a such a wet board is extrememly dangerous because 1. you have 3 players to act behind you, 2 the chances of getting called is very likely, meaning if you were bluffing in this spot you will certainly neeed to fire a second barrel to take down the pot, so betting in that spot usualy recommended if you dont have a made hand or a strong combo hand. dispite this.. Calacanis goes ahead and bets out ....
Daniel on the other hand calls Calacanis's bet with the second nut flush draw and awaits 2 players to act.. Now if this were HU calling with second pair and a re draw to the second nuts its perfectly standard.. but David williams then goes and calls too... I think here this point of the hand its probably the most cruical part.. What Hands are betting OOP and what hands are Calling behind on this board.. ??
Imo, David Must atleast have the Nut flush draw, due to the action infront, he is less likely to hole QT because calling with the open ended on a flushed board seems alittle donkish when ur up against 2 other players + 1 that hasnt yet acted.. so Imo David hand range consists mostly of 2 pair or TP + combo draw hands..
Next, the loose cannon shoves a fulll stack into 3 people, the question is what Hands can he shove with on this board amongst the action infront of him ?? any one care to give me some hand ranges on the loose cannon ?
Erm, yes, I gave you ranges of hands for him twice.
All combos of suited spades
Lots of AsXx hands, especially paired ones like As3x and AsJx
KJ, 33
You're wrong about williams' range as well imo, the action in front of him isnt that scary; its pretty passive. And he's expecting the loose cannon to probably just follow along behind or fold most of the time as well so he can take this line with a far wider range of hands than you think. If williams indeed perceives their ranges to be mostly spade draws why wuoldnt he call with just QT? Sure, it cuts his outs down to 6, but he's intelligent enough to get away if the action it too adverse on later streets anyway. And if the board bricks off maybe he feels like he can steal it in position from his opponent's busted draws.
This whole discussion is irrelevent anyway. If you even bothered to read either one of my posts before this you'dve seen me going into detail about the ranges of hands anyway, and also explaining why they hardly even matter. Televised entertainment, etc, im not going to repeat myself. I think ive pretty much covered everything with this last post and im not going to keep going around in circles just to humour you - i'm done here.
Am about to watch the video, but before I do I would say this:
If one hand is all it took for you to "lose all respect for daniel" then you can't have had much respect for him in the first place. Whether his play is correct or not is irrelevant. EVERYONE makes mistakes from time to time, whether it be through flawed logic, a bad read or some form of tilt.
I hardly think that one of these instances (even if it is a bad call, which idk yet as i havent watched it) would be enough to wash out all of daniel's many achievements over the years. Ivey accidentally mucked a winning flush in the WSOP - should we lose all respect for him too? Of course not.
*watches video*