AQ in BB Button min Raises what you do?

agreed

I'd just standard raise if the players in the blinds were unknown or nitty. And shove if they are loose, donks or stations.

DJblacke04, why do you post here? if its to get better then start listening to other people when they give you advice. i'm up over $20,000 playing sngs. i can kill the low stakes 45 persons. if i was in this situation in a 45 person i would shove all day.

what was the buy in? just curious.

Ok so I'm going to attempt to apply brute force maths to this fool just this once. I'm almost certain he will skim over/ignore/not understand it but I'm at a loose end and its always good practice to do these sorts of calcs anyway.

First off, I'm going to discount djblacke's "minraise = strength" fallacy right out of the gate. It's late game, short handed and so smaller raises become the norm, especially as blinds increase relative to stacks. In the initial post we were given no history or read, and readless it would be foolish and very costly indeed to see a minraise and automatically just assume strength. Now onto the hand.

With chip stacks as described, if we fold we are left with 18,800 chips. The end result of the following calculations will be to obtain a rough estimate of the EV of a shove which can be compared to this figure.

Let's assume button is opening with the following range:

{22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,A9o+,KQo}

The exact range is up for debate but readless this is completely reasonable. I actually think for most players its going to be a lot wider than this (he will probably open A5o or K8s, for example), but we'll stick with this range since I don't see any way these hands can be contested without a read. I will now total up how many "combinations" of hands this range represents, bearing in mind we are holding the AhQs.

There are 6 combos of 22-JJ and KK. {66}
There are 3 combos left of QQ and AA {72}
There are 3 combos of A2s-AJs and AKs. {105}
There are 2 combos of AQs. {107}
There are 4 combos of KTs, KJs {115}
There are 3 combos of KQs {118}
There are 3 combos of QTs and QJs {124}
There are 9 combos of A9o-AJo and AKo. {160}
There are 7 combos of AQo. {167}
Finally, there are 9 combos of KQo. {176}

This range therefore represents a total of 176 "combinations" of hands. This will become relevant later when we work out the % of the time we are getting called.

Now we need to work out the button's calling range. After the raise there is 2400+600+1200 = 4200 in the pot. When we shove our last 18,800 in the pot becomes 23,000, giving our opponent 1.22:1 on a call. This means that our opponent needs 45.0% equity to call our shove, and given relative stack sizes he is not going to be calling us light. This part is again inexact because it depends on the range we are shoving, and our opponent's tendencies, etc. Assuming we're readless, though, our shoving range will probably look something like {AJs+,AQo+,99+}. Against this range the button can only call off with JJ+,AKs,AKo profitably.

{JJ+,AKs,AKo} represents 18+3+9 = 30 combinations.

So we're getting called 30/176 or 17.0% of the time. Against this calling range our equity is:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

616,429,440 games 0.587 secs 1,050,135,332 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 71.849% 70.71% 01.14% 435898404 6998250.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 28.151% 27.02% 01.14% 166534536 6998250.00 { AQo }

83% of the time the button folds and our stack becomes 23,000. The other 17% of the time we are 28.151% to win a pot of 40,600. So our EV for a shove is:

(0.83)(23,000) + (0.17)(0.282)(40,600) = 19,090 + 1946 = 21,036.

The difference between 21,036 and 18,800 is +2236 chips. That is the amount extra we expect to win by shoving in this spot as opposed to folding. If the button is opening wider pre, then the 83% figure increases and our EV will gradually get closer to 23,000. (or +4200 relative to folding).

As one final note, there is no real way to calculate the expected value of calling and seeing a flop in order to compare this option to shoving. However, these calculations have shown that shoving is +EV to the tune of adding 10% to our stack, and I highly doubt that playing a pot out of position with AQo here is going to be that massively profitable for us. Of course, reads change all of this dramatically, but you supplied us with none and so I have used none.

So I return to my initial point: bang it in. Djblacke, I sincerely hope you have followed this and learned something from it. If you have any queries with regards to my calculations I'd be happy to clear them up.

what the fuck is the buy in??????????

how many times do i have to ask?

just so you know though, your shove will force a fold ~50% of the time.

plz let the donk think he is wright... more dllrs for us.

do you offer coaching djblake04??

i could really learn from you!

Profit is profit no matter how many games you have played. And the amount doesnt matter so much if your multi-tabling. Rate per hour or day much more important than per game in my opinion.

If you have so much profit, why do you come across as such an angry person? And why are you attacking others, when you were the one that asked for advice. As far as playing together, i would welcome that. I dont know where you play or what your user name is, but i play heads up at poker stars 20-50 range everynight. So you if you want to play me come find me. My profit is doing just fine, considering i have a full time job as well. So you must be over 60 k profit right? Because between just pharreal and myself, we have 60k in profit. Not to mention all the other combined as you stated.

i'm up a bit in tourneys too on top of sngs.

if i lived close i would come play you in some HU cash.

its still a shove though, and as bad as a call is, a fold is worse.

I currently only play at PS. I dont know if sky poker takes US players or not but i wud come there to play you a set of 10 games heads up. Im not exactly sure your being honest when you say any level when ur average stake is 15 dollars. Im not trying to attack you because your stats are good but dont come on and talk about bs that you have more profit than anyone or all combined. I beat you in every category including profit, and overall rating. You may not be angry but you are defenitely a bit arrogant for a guy that hasnt done much in the game. Dont get me wrong im not saying your a bad player. But coming on and asking rhetorical question then calling everyone out is pretty weak.

Suppose we flat call here OOP, what's our plan for postflop play with around 14BB's and very little room to maneuver? There may be merit to flatting in some situations if we have position, but here we hand all control to the original raiser. If we're playing hit or fold postflop, we're going to fold to c-bets a lot of the time. Anyways i'm all for thinking outside the box, but here seems like a clearcut shove preflop for me. I'm interested in thoughts about postflop play here however.

How can that possibly be profitable? you realise that sometimes when we do flop our ace or queen we go broke a small % of the time anyway right? All the other times when we miss, and we miss more often than not, we fold to a c-bet which he is doing with his entire range.
on a flop of JJ2 we're ahead a shitload of the time here, and we just check/fold. i could crunch the numbers on this one, but i'm 100% certain that calling here and playing hit or fold is a mistake. Perhaps if you had a better plan like checkraising flops like JJ2 then it could show a profit, however 3betshoving is easily the best option here.

Question djblacke04: im playing a 10000man winner-takes-it-all tourney and im in the Headsup with a guy who has 10k stack against my 5million stack. But im really tired now, should i go to bed for a couple of hrs first?

edited

With only 3 players AQ is a monster. Im less interested in picking up the blinds, which 2 hands later i lose, and more interested in taking his entire stack. A min raise is standard 3 handed.. i would assume im way in front most of the time, my only concern here is how i can win a big pot. Why not slow play? If flop comes JJ2, check raise or even flat and check raise turn, i dont really care if i go bust with AQ here, but i want max out of it, all in will likey kill action, thoughts?

I was sick in the hospital and out of the game for a month so that why i didnt reply to djblack. The place is poker stars and the time is every night from 9pm west coast usa time to 2am. Come find me and i will play you all night if you like. I play 20 to 50 dollar heads up games. But i will go higher or lower if you like. I would definitely enjoy playing you and owning you all night long. Like i said no hiding here. Im on almost every night 9-2am. Come get some.

I think djblacke must just be someone winding you all up and posting comments that are going to get a reaction. Some of the comments made about always folding to a c-bet when he misses (three handed at this stage most good players will have a very high bet frequency pre flop, with a huge range of hands) and also your getting c-bet 99% of the time regardless of your opponents hand.
This just isnt something a profitable player would ever, ever say. There's no logical way to refute the maths that was posted either - shoving IS profitable and the mathematics of a situation never lie.
Having said this, I wouldn't think personally that different options are all terrible. Bearing in mind Holdem isn't my specialist area at all - I'm sure theres potential profit in seeing a flop if you are confident in your post flop play and know from watching previous hands at the table that your opponent will reliably make certain plays in specific scenarios on the flop.
But as Alex demonstrated with clear calculations, shoving is definately profitable - so you cant argue with it really as a good line to take in the hand.