Am I experiencing varience?
I play $10 9seater sitngos on fulltilt
I have played over 6000 games (3000 of them at the $10 level)
I normaly run at around the 10% ROI level and have experienced very limited losing or break even streaks (around 150games was my worst) but I always pull out of it and gain back any lost ROI. However over the last 600 games I am around even.
The only changes i have made to my game has been to increase my blind on blind shoves when I am 10BB or under. When i review sitngo wizard (and pimpindonks bubble play video) I find all these shoves to be correct and positive equity.
Can this play lead to wider varience or should I just expect this after playing for this long?
The reason I chose 9seater sitngos over 45 or 90man ones was to lower varience.
Comments are very much welcome, even if it is just to say "Dont worry" which i am hoping lol
Comments
i find that on ftp there is not as much value as shoving light on stars as there is no antes which allows you more time to find some better spots sometimes and you have less to acuumulate from your shoves. from what i have heard about sng wiz is that you need to have peoples ranges pretty spot on and with ftp having worse players than stars a lot of people call off lighter due to their poor knowledge of ICM etc. your calling ranges for the players you are shoving on may not be correct. i see people calling off with A9 etc on the bubble for half their stack blind on blind when they have 4k in chips. even if you knew the player was shoving atc then this would be an awful call but a lot of people see the ace and call off, particularly at the lower levels.
also with no antes you have a full orbit to find a better spot without the worry of losing an ante each hand so shoving atc with 8bb on the small blind/button is maybe not as optimal as it seems as you are only gaining 1.5 bbs when you will have a number of hands to pick up the blinds in a better spot or better still to double with a legitimate hand. by all means you should be shoving light but maybe not atc.
I've had a 2000 game break even at the 20s on FT... dont worry about it man just keep grinding and playing solid you'll pull through