giusnun

Blog archives

Data analysis and related conclusions

Well, I have played more than 2000 tourneys at different stakes (in about 2 months) and now it’s time for an impartial analysis to find out the most profitable stake level to play.

Data (from 20/5/2009 to 30/7/2009)
t1.jpg

From the table above we have to eliminate the first and the last row because the sample is too small (we need at least 500 tourneys to have accurate data to analyze).
After this operation, we peek ROIs and use them to make a projection to find out how much I can earn, let’s say, monthly. I normally do “8-turbo-multitabling” and each tourney lasts about 40 minutes... it means that I play 12 tourneys per hour. Since I play (on average) 3 hours per day and 28 days per months, I play about 1000 tourneys per month.

Now, let’s make the projection:
t2.jpg

We can clearly see that, for me, it’s more profitable to play at 5€. So, in this august, I’ll step back to 5€ stake (I was playing at 20€ and 30€ lately) to maximize earnings. I will also play 3€ sngs because I need to know which is my ROI at that stake. Infact, if I could confirm, over 500 tourneys, my present ROI at 3€, as you can see below, it would be even more profitable than at 5€.
t3.jpg

HELP MEEEEEE !!!

Hey, guys, I need your help on this graph:
week.jpg
How is it possible that I lose money just on Wednesday and Saturday ???
Am I tired on Wednesday (I stay at office one hour more than other days) and on Saturday (after the work-week) ?
Can’t I stand playing well for 3 days in a row (infact my week looks like this: “win-win-lose- win-win-lose-win”) ?

Looking at the ROIs, it seems that in the weekend I play very bad (but the weekend should be more profitable, since there are more “spot-players” and less regulars) and the same is true on Wednesday.

I really don’t know... I’m start thinking “Ok, that means I must play only on Monday, Tuesday and Friday” Smile Big
Any idea, guys ???

It's so hard to wait

It's about 1000 tourneys, now, that I'm quite break even, and it's really hard to wait for the bankroll to grow up and for the sharkscope graph to bump up. I write this short post just to vanish this ugly feeling. I have tried to change this motionless trend playing on other poker rooms, but it's always the same: everytime I start a session I suffer many bad beats (quite often on the river, as usual) and only after several hours I manage to regain what I have lost and go break even.
I'd try to play other tourney's type (hu, mtt, ...) but, on the poker room I play, HUs aren't rewarded with bonus/rakeback and MTTs don't fill in a reasonable amount of time.
So... what to do? Take a break or just continue to play, waiting for this flat trend to end?

A question about a hand

Hi guys... I'd like to know your opinion about this hand.
Did I play it well, almost well, almost bad or completely bad?
Thanks to everyone.
question.jpg

My best rush

I write this post just to be fair, because I tend to blog only during bad runs and downswings and this is not a good thing.

Ok, after a break-even streak of about 1000 tourneys, in the last 2 days I finally had an upswing, earning more than 900 dollars in just 15 tourneys.
I am happy for that and I want to share with you how I made it.
Here are the key-points:
1) LUCK (or, at least, no more bad luck)
2) re-watch already seen videos (especially Pimpindonks' ones)
3) more focus (reducing multitabling factor to 4-6 tables at once)

I consider particularly important the second point: I suggest everyone to watch again and again the videos (I repeat: especially Pimpindonks' ones) because I have learnt something new every time and, most important, because I have found that, after many tourneys, my style inexplicably deteriorates and I play much badly without any reason.

Thanks, at last, to everyone who helped me with good advices: DudleyDawson, Alex Burlton, FlyingSafe, Greg25, pinkpantherr, -oopsibeatu-, Mr Wray, Trankh and, above all, Pimpindonks.

Diet

Yeah, you've read well: diet!
I have had an idea: since all Sharkscope's stuff (graphs, stats, blogs, videos, etc) has helped me so much in having discipline and becoming a winning (so far) poker player, I want to apply the same tools and the same rules to my weight, trying to get in shape and finally get rid of my big and horrible belly!
I don't know if I'll start tomorrow (my birthday) or on the 1st sept, but I'm strongly motivated to do it because it's really unpleasant, for a 36 years old good poker player, to weight 95 Kg.
Do you agree?
Ok, so I'll soon start a diet and take a Sharkscope-like graph of my weight and it must be equal to my profit-graph... in a decreasing fashion, of course Wink

Diet update

Ok guys... for who is interested, I put here my diet update.
You can read the full story here.
For Sharkscopers' administrators: I made this new entry, not related to poker, just to demonstrate that the "Sharkscopers approach" (graphs, data analisys, long term goals, blogs) can be useful in many aspects of life. If you think that it is inappropriate just let me know and I'll delete it.
Thankyou.

Starting weight: 93.5 kg (206 lb)
1 lb (pound) = ~0.4536 kg